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February Newsletter ~ Carmel & Pebble Beach Real Estate

Dear Friends,

One of my two favorite event weeks is upon us! Next week kicks off the AT&T Pro-Amateur Celebrity Golf Tournament. Since I was a kid, my parents and I would help Ron Faia and the gang in the Carmel Youth Center Tent out on the 14th Fairway at Pebble Beach. The wind would be blowing the tent over, heavy showers prompting everyone on the course to seek shelter under our 2 foot overhangs, and yet there we would be serving up hot dogs and poor boys, Heinekens and cigars, oblivious to the torrential downpour and violent storm on the verge of yanking our tent out of the ground and disposing of it in the sea below. We were living! This has far and wide been the story for many an AT&T, and something that makes it unique, drawing people from around the world to want to brave the elements with us in style. We hope to see you there again this year. We will be!

The Carmel and Pebble Beach real estate markets have kicked off again in the last couple of weeks.  More listings, more properties going into contract and more buyers entering the market and engaging again. After a couple of sleepy months, it is nice to see things pick back up again from their seasonal lull. As many know, we have had low inventory levels, which make it a good time to be a seller and harder to be a buyer. Interest rates have dropped, yet again, to 3.66% for 30 year fixed (Freddie Mac). And to that point, any of our friends and clients that are thinking about a refi, or who have not refi’d and have a higher rate, you ought to initiate that right now while the window is open. Feel free to call me and I can recommend someone good based on your situation.

Last week Ryan Melcher Properties won a David Lyng Real Estate President’s Club Champion Award for having top sales numbers. David Lyng Real Estate is the #1 brokerage in the greater Monterey and Santa Cruz County, with a total of 5 offices, specializing in luxury real estate and marketing.  Today we closed a really neat, mid-century, quintessential Carmel Valley rancher home, complete with pool and overhanging Royal Palm, out by the Los Laureles Lodge for $1.255M…a real treat. The market is moving!

Thank you to all our friends for your continued support, and as always, if you or someone you know is thinking of buying or selling a property, please refer them to us and we will make sure they are well take care of.  Please scroll down for the January numbers…. Note: blog.ryanmelcher.com will be down sometime tomorrow, probably in the evening, for a full site conversion. We have an all-new design and active Google advertising platform going live this month.

Cheers,

Ryan & Team

Carmel Real Estate

Carmel real estate inventory is currently at 133 available homes, with 18 completed single family residence transactions during the month of January.

Carmel-by-the-Sea Real Estate

Our local MLS has recently added a “Carmel-by-the-Sea” city location. Some homes in this location are still populating in “Carmel” and visa versa.  MLS Carmel-by-the-Sea real estate inventory is currently at 24 available homes, with 3 completed single family residence transactions during the month of January.

Pebble Beach Real Estate

Pebble Beach real estate inventory is currently at 67 available homes, with 7 completed single family residence transactions during the month of January.

Carmel Valley Real Estate

Some areas of Carmel Valley that have historically been considered the Valley, are now populating in our MLS as “Carmel”. We will see if they stick with this but for now…. Carmel Valley real estate inventory is currently at 37 available homes, with 6 completed single family residence transactions during the month of January. What you and I think of as the “Valley” is a bit more active than that. Apologies for the variance.

Carmel Highlands

Carmel Highlands real estate inventory is currently at 8 available homes, with 1 completed single family residence transaction during the month of January.

Disclaimer: The numbers and activity represented in this report were drawn directly from the MLS, the California Association Of Realtors, Freddie Mac and other sources, and are generally accepted as correct but are subject to change and/or mistakes.

 

Dear Friends,

As the days grow shorter, the nights colder and the holidays nearer, some buzz persists in our quaint little town. This last weekend was the annual Big Sur Food & Wine festival, and we headed out to the Grand Tasting at Pfeiffer State Park with some good friends to celebrate life and the pursuit of happiness. Back in town, clear Winter skies proved good beach weather for us locals and our dogs. We took our St Bernard, Charlie, to Carmel beach, and he galloped directly into the crashing waves, to the delight of onlookers. Nothing beats throwing on a fleece and taking the dog to the beach on a brisk Winter day, latte or cappuccino in hand compliments of Carmel Valley Coffee Roasting Company.

While our real estate season isn’t at it’s peak, we’re maintaining some decent velocity going into the holidays. New inventory is falling a bit, as is normal this time of year, so it can still be an advantageous time to be a seller, with less competition. Last month we closed a nice, newer construction listing of ours in the downtown area from a $2.1M list. This evening we listed a $1,249,000 ocean view home in the Carmel Views area. You can see Point Lobos in the distance. Things are continuing to move, tourism remains strong as we exit Indian Summer, and I for one welcome the changing season. It has been a good year.

As always, please think of us if you or a friend needs representation. We subsist almost entirely upon referrals from you. Please scroll down for market activity by area.

Cheers,

Ryan & Team

Carmel

Carmel real estate inventory is currently at 123 available homes, with 34 total transactions occurring during October, ranging from $270K to $4.95M.

Pebble Beach

Pebble Beach real estate inventory is currently at 68 available homes, with 16 total transactions ranging from $608K to $31.25M.

Carmel Valley

Carmel Valley real estate inventory is currently at 82 available homes, with 10 total transactions ranging from $365K to $1.15M.

Carmel Highlands

Carmel Highlands real estate inventory is currently at 25 available homes, with 1 transaction at $1.425M.

We can feel Spring season coming upon us with reawakened interest in the high end markets! I’m hoping for more inventory to match demand. I myself have a 3 bed, 2 bath view home on Tierra Grande in the Valley coming to market next week. Expansive views in need of just a little updating. I expect it to sell rather quickly.

The downtown Carmel area picked up the pace last week with 4 out of 8 Carmel closings in actual Carmel-by-the-Sea city. One sale was at $2.4M for about 2600 sq ft on a slightly undersized lot, North of Ocean and on Monte Verde. A really nice, new build on Mission and 11th sold for $1.7M for 1600 sq ft on a standard 4000 sq ft lot. Only 1 new pending sale listed at $1.95M  on Camino Real and 4th, just about 2 blocks North of Ocean.

Pebble Beach saw 3 closed transactions- none on the estate side, but there was a huge one bedroom house of glass with guesthouse on Padre Lane that closed at $4.1M. Unique to say the least. There was only one pending sale in Pebble, also on Padre Lane, which was a dialed, large home right above the Lodge listed at $8.295M. There was one lot sale on Forest Lake Road on about an acre for $830K. We didn’t see the same activity in Pebble as we did in Carmel, but it still continues to show gains, as well as a notable turnaround in the high end.

A slower week for sales in Carmel Valley, but not for lack of buyers! Inventory remains incredibly low under the $1.5M range, with a lot of lookers! Only one closed sale last week, and it was in the 55+ area of Del Mesa. On the up side, even with the lack of inventory, Carmel Valley had 6 new sales, one of which was in Quail Meadows at a list of $2.195M.

Only 1 new sale in the Highlands on Oak way for a small cottage listed at $1.195M with peaks of the ocean.

Things are heating up!

Best,

Ryan

 

Car week is upon us! Come next week, the Monterey Peninsula will experience an influx of car enthusiasts and rare automobiles from all over the world. Being somewhat of a self-proclaimed car guy, his is my favorite event of the year. If I’m going to sit in an hour of traffic to go from Carmel Valley to downtown Carmel-by-the-Sea, I would prefer to look at Italian sports cars and one-off prototypes rather than a sea of AT&T courtesy cars. Just kidding….I love courtesy cars.

All joking aside, the Italian and Pebble Beach Concours’, along with Historic auto races and auctions next week, are a great time to showcase Carmel and Pebble Beach real estate. Sales have stayed relatively steady through the last month- mid-Summer is generally one of the year’s slowest times and we have seen a little slowing.  Carmel Valley property saw the heaviest action, with Carmel and Pebble Beach trailing close behind. Pebble Beach real estate is actually showing signs of increasing momentum.. Carmel-by-the-sea real estate looked sharp with 4 closed sales and 7 new sales just in the Golden Rectangle, the downtown area’s most sought after pocket. From an investment standpoint, this area offers quick turn around and continues to be hot. One particular sale of note was on San Antonio 2SW 11th at $5.7M from a list of $6.95M almost a year before. The Carmel Highlands have seen some big sales; the 3 highest at  a list of $4.45M, a closed sale at $9.25M and another pending sale at a list of $13.5M. It’s great to see the higher-end market get more and more traction here and also in Pebble Beach.

Although we’ve seen mild slowing in the $1M to $1.5 range, I predict it has most to do with the time of year and also a lack of inventory now that buyers have been out in force since the Spring. Especially encouraging is the over 4% rise of housing prices from this time a year ago, on a national level. This is interesting when considering we are a stronger market than most of the country. It’s great to feel so much movement in the Pebble Beach and Carmel real estate markets, and I’m excited to see what this next week brings.

Also as an announcement, I have moved to David Lyng Real Estate on Lincoln between Ocean and 7th in downtown Carmel, almost right next to the Cypress Inn, which I’m very excited about! Below are your actual statistics for each area……….

Carmel

11 closed sales, between $540K and $1.75M, with one at $5.75M

23 new sales, between $445K and $3.895M

Carmel Highlands

 2 closed sales, at about $1M and $9.25M

2 new sales, at $13.5M and $4.45M

Pebble Beach

12 closed sales between $380K to $2.5M, spread evenly, and one at $5.65M, which was a Del Ciervo view property.

11 new sales, 2 on the estate side at $6.25M and $9.375M, respectively, and a foreclosed lot on Sombria at a list of $2.8M. Pebble Beach seems to be finally starting to make a healthy comeback.

Carmel Valley

19 closed sales from $329K to $3.8M. The Del Mesa and also Carmel Hacienda 55 yr and older condos are getting a lot of action. There was also a foreclosed lot at $720K in Tehama.

22 new sales from $229K to $2.2M

 

This is a great article from the Wall Street Journal which brings to light what I’ve been saying for the past 6 months- Now is the time to buy! Carmel-by-the-Sea real estate, Carmel Valley property, and even Pebble Beach real estate are experiencing really healthy activity. for the last 2 quarters. The market has indeed, turned.

“The housing market has turned—at last.

The U.S. finally has moved beyond attention-grabbing predictions from housing “experts” that housing is bottoming. The numbers are now convincing.

Nearly seven years after the housing bubble burst, most indexes of house prices are bending up. “We finally saw some rising home prices,” S&P’s David Blitzer said a few weeks ago as he reported the first monthly increase in the slow-moving S&P/Case-Shiller house-price data after seven months of declines.

The U.S. finally has moved beyond attention-grabbing predictions from housing “experts” that housing is bottoming. The numbers are now convincing, according to David Wessel on The News Hub. (Photo: Bloomberg News)

Nearly 10% more existing homes were sold in May than in the same month a year earlier, many purchased by investors who plan to rent them for now and sell them later, an important sign of an inflection point. In something of a surprise, the inventory of existing homes for sale has fallen close to the normal level of six months’ worth despite all the foreclosed homes that lenders own. The fraction of homes that are vacant is at its lowest level since 2006.

The reduced inventory of unsold homes is key, says Mark Fleming, chief economist at CoreLogic, a housing data-analysis firm. For the past couple of years, house prices have risen in the spring and then slumped; the declining supply of houses for sale is reason to believe that won’t happen again this year, he says.

 Builders began work on 26% more single-family homes in May 2012 than the depressed levels of May 2011. The stock of unsold newly built homes is back to 2005 levels. In each of the past four quarters, housing construction has added to economic growth. In the first quarter, it accounted for 0.4 percentage points of the meager 1.9% growth rate.

“Even with the overall economy slowing,” Wells Fargo Securities economists said, cautiously, in a note to clients, “the budding recovery in the housing market appears to be gradually gaining momentum.”

Economists aren’t always right, but on this at least they agree: A new Wall Street Journal survey of forecasters found 44 believe the housing market has reached its bottom; only three don’t. (The full results of the Journal’s July survey will be released at 2pm ET)

Housing is still far from healthy despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts to resuscitate it by helping to push mortgage rates to extraordinary lows: 3.62% for a 30-year loan, according to Freddie Mac’s latest survey. Single-family housing starts, though up, remain 60% below the 2002 pre-bubble pace. Americans’ equity in homes is $2 trillion, or 25%, less than it was in 2002 and half what it was at the peak. More than one in every four mortgage borrowers still has a loan bigger than the value of the house, though rising home prices are reducing that fraction slowly.

Still, the upturn in housing is a milestone, a particularly welcome one amid a distressing dearth of jobs. For some time, housing has been one of the biggest causes of economic weakness. It has now—barely—moved to the plus side. “A little tail wind is a lot better than a headwind,” says economist Chip Case, the “Case” in Case-Shiller.

From here on, housing is unlikely to drag the U.S. economy down further. It will instead reflect the strength or weakness of the overall economy: The more jobs, the more confident Americans are about keeping their jobs, the more they are willing to buy houses. “Manufacturing had led growth and construction had lagged,” JPMorgan Chase economists said last week.”Now the roles are reversed: Manufacturing growth has slowed as private construction comes to life.”

Plenty could go wrong. The biggest threat is a large shadow inventory of unsold homes, homes which owners won’t put on the market because they are underwater, homes that will be foreclosed eventually and homes owned by lenders. They have been trickling onto the market, slowed in part by government efforts to delay foreclosures; a flood could reverse the recent rise in prices. Or the still-dysfunctional mortgage market could get worse. Or overly zealous regulators or a post-election change in government policy could unsettle mortgage lenders or home buyers.

But the housing bust is over.”

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